The relationship between biogeography and ecology: envelopes, models, predictions

This paper reviews ideas on the relationship between the ecology of clades and their distribution. Ecological biogeography represents a tradition that dates back to ancient times. It assumes that the distribution of organisms is explained by factors of present environment, especially climate. In contrast, modern systematics, following its origins in the Renaissance, concluded with Darwin that ‘neither the similarity nor the dissimilarity of the inhabitants of various regions can be accounted for by their climatal and other physical conditions’. In many cases, species distribution models – ecological niche models – based on the current environment of a species (its environmental envelope) fail to predict the actual distribution of the species. In particular, they often over-predict distributions. In addition, a group’s niche often varies in space and time. These results provide valuable evidence that Darwin was correct, and many ecologists now recognise that there is a problem with the niche theory of distribution. Current ecological processes explain distribution at smaller scales than do biogeographical and evolutionary processes, but the latter can lead to patterns that are much more local than many ecologists have assumed. Biogeographical phenomena often occur at a much smaller scale than that of the Wallacean regions. In areas that have been subjected to marine inundation or intense tectonism, many centres of endemism are only tens of kilometres across. © 2015 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2015, ••, ••–••.